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"I will be sitting in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if our conversation was successful, he might welcome the interviewer into Number 10 for a follow-up chat in the coming year.

There is never truly break for prime ministers. In the hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been speaking with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his close ally, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was far more extended than typical, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

With the year starts, Sir Keir seems to have had a degree of a refresh. Maybe even just some downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly appeared to have put him in improved morale than at the saggy tail end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his allies being unrealistic if they reckon his political fate are about to turn around?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the leader is that many of his colleagues believe he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather gamble and remove him this year.

However Sir Keir was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he insisted he'd be "assessed at the next election", maintaining nobody would take his term from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 may be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the battle of our lifetime and I aim to be at the forefront," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised well ahead of then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – to some extent. But even though he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would step down, should one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was understandably eager for things to change. He sought to assure me, and the public, that the coming months would be distinct.

The economic situation would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he said, when policies the government put in place during their first turbulent year began to show results.

• He pledged to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a firm date on that.
• He added too, with the caveat that it was not a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His core point is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with renewed vitality than observed from him for a some time – less tense, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with increased political direction, more vigour, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political trouble, should he consider a new narrative?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, has everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because governing is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when comments he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir attributed it to "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing clear political risks as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president takes on a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the idea he would be comfortable with such action seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "longtime champion of international law" but we "just haven't got the complete details at the moment".

Opponents called for him to denounce it prior to the interview. And the administration is expected to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has consistently been simmering pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the results of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's pursuing that, but his new firmer pledge to integrate further with the EU's single market – the huge economic European trading zone – will probably elicit howls that he is going back on his vow never to try to undo the results that stemmed from Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will delight many on his backbenches, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to